I couldn’t really call this a end of 2009 wrap, nor a look-ahead to 2010 so I’ll just go ahead and call it exactly what it is – a run-down on some of my thoughts and feelings on the Suns through 36 games. It’s a smattering of unorganized thoughts – I know that’s your favorite.
- Phoenix has a 23-13 record, currently good enough for 3rd in the Western Conference. Although they opened the season 14-3 it’s difficult to be too disappointed with this record considering the gauntlet of road games played (a 14 of 19 road stretch was a blast) and the quality of opponents to this point- they play the Nets more times the rest of the season (2) than they play the Lakers, Celtics, Cavs, and Magic (1).
- On the flip side the record is just one game in front of their pace from last season – and you know how well that wound up for Terry Porter. Obviously this isn’t to say they aren’t a better basketball team and the schedule has certainly been quite a bit more challenging but it is surprising. I guess good team chemistry and a fun offensive system goes a long way towards defining your opinion on a particular record.
- The West is so strong this year that although the Suns are currently in 3rd they are just 3.5 games from being in 9th and just 6 games from being in 12th! The usual suspects are all in playoff contention and have been joined by a feisty Oklahoma City team, a motivated Memphis, the Clippers, and even the Kings. The only West team with absolutely zero shot at the playoffs is Minnesota (although Golden State is right there on death’s door).
- Speaking of playoff races – the Suns will obviously need to keep winning at a relatively high rate just to make it back to the party but if you’re talking about seeding I have a strong desire to avoid the following seeds: 4, 5, or 8. The reason? Kobe Bryant and the Lakers. Obviously nobody wants to be the 8 seed but I want to stretch that even further – if it’s between the Suns getting the 6 seed and the 4 or 5 I’d prefer to have the 6. The difference between 2-9 in the West is so minuscule that I’d actually take being the road team in the first round over a possible 2nd round matchup with the Lakers. That being said I will root for the Suns to finish with the 2 or 3 seed.
- What more can be said about how good Steve Nash has been? The guy is a 2-time NBA MVP and at 35 he’s still really fucking good. He’s averaging 18.9 PPG, 11.3 APG and he’s shooting….well read this - he’s shooting nearly as well as anybody in NBA history. But if you thought I couldn’t find a complaint in all the sunshine you don’t know me very well – Nash has the 2nd most turnovers in the league (Monta Ellis owns the crown) and his 3.9 average per game would be a career high. Yes I am aware that is like complaining about winning a lottery for $10 million dollars instead of $15 million.
- As any Suns fan knows, this year is pretty big for Amar’e Stoudemire since he can opt out of his current contract at the end of the season. It’s no secret that Amar’e is looking for a max contract but at his current level of play (which has been well above average and continues to improve) I think he’s worth right around what he makes now – $16.4 million. Not to cop out of any actual analysis but I tend to agree with the conclusion of Phoenix Stan in his recent Amar’e trade column. However as Amar’e has poured in 24 points or more in 5 straight games and is beginning to play with some of that pre-injury violence, I reserve the right to change my mind. With dunks like the below from last night…who knows:
- Anyone familiar with my Suns opinions via tweet or post is aware of my love of the term “the Channing Coaster” – my way of describing the up and down play of Suns center Channing Frye. When Channing is going good he’s going really really good – see Wednesday’s 22-9 (with 6 threes) against Houston. Yet when it’s bad it tends to be really bad – see last Saturday night’s 2/13 performance against Memphis. But to be perfectly clear on Channing – the guy has been an absolute steal. For just a hair below $2 million dollars a season the Suns have picked up a starting center averaging 13-6 and flat out working his ass off. Not just that but the guy can actually take over a game when he gets hot. Sure he’s not exactly expert at creating his own shot but that’s what Steve Nash is for. I suppose I’ll just sit back and enjoy my ride on the Coaster.
- After a pretty strong opening to the season Grant Hill has slowed in the past 10 games – averaging just 7.5 points per game and starting to take what I refer to as “thinking it’s 1996″ shots where he dribbles way too much and takes an ill-advised and contested baseline jumper. Obviously it’s not just the points but it appears to my semi-trained eye that Hill is moving more slowly than last year. Far be it for me to count out the 37 year-old but if this type of performance continues you have to wonder how long the Suns can continue to start him.
- I covered Jason Richardson’s recent struggles last week and after a couple more poor games (12 against Boston and 5 against Memphis) J-Rich has strung together consecutive 20 point outings and is starting to show some of the offensive burst he had prior to his wrist injury suffered in mid-December against the Nuggets. What was particularly promising for me was how Richardson used Wednesday’s Rockets game to work his way back into the post and use his size and strength advantages to score points. It’s definitely a matchup based thing but anytime J-Rich can get a smaller guard he should find his way to the block.
- The bench has been a pleasant surprise. While Jared Dudley doesn’t appear as if he’s ever going to be a guy that creates his own shot he seems to have carved out a niche as a tough defender and a guy that can really knock down the open three. How well has he knocked down threes to this point in the season? Oh he just leads the NBA in three point shooting percentage at 50% (58/116). The other big time bench surprise has been the development of Goran Dragic. With a price tag of $1.8 million dollars most looked at Dragic’s rookie season as a major disappointment – yet this year he’s managed to play with more confidence and dare I say a bit of swagger. The ankle injury suffered by Leandro Barbosa permitted Dragic to be paired with Steve Nash on the court for extended periods and seemed to help him make strides as a player. He’s showing more than a few signs of being the quick, athletic point guard Steve Kerr was so high on.
- Speaking of Barbosa – it’s been tough to evaluate him considering the wrist and ankle injuries that have plagued him to this point in the year. Alvin Gentry has started to work him into the rotation more and more but LB still appears far from 100%. There’s no denying that the Suns are a much more dangerous team with a healthy LB.
- I want to see more of Robin Lopez. The 2nd year center has struggled to get minutes since coming back from a foot injury in late November but as I see it there isn’t a player on the Suns roster that gives you the dimensions Lopez can provide. He may not be the most graceful player on the planet, and he definitely has a temper but he can rebound and he blocks or changes a number of shots. I like Lou Amundson enough to be a little used bench player but I really don’t see a reason he should be playing about 5 minutes per game more than Lopez (14.8 to 9.9). At the very minimum the Suns invested a first round pick in Lopez – one for which they passed on guys like Al Thornton and Marrese Speights – they need to see what they have.
Pressed to come up with an answer I’d say the Suns will win 52 games and come up with the 5 seed – but you’ve seen how my predictions usually turn out. Bottom line is that this is a above-average basketball game that can hang with or beat anybody on any given night…but they can also lose games by 25 to the Grizzlies at home. Weird but fun team.
